Dublin Aviation Week 2026
Dublin aviation week 2026. Flood of badges, endless list of meetings and venues, miserable rain, the sort that makes you question every venue change, and conversations that stretched well beyond the formal panels.
The mood was forward-looking, focused more on keeping aircraft in the air than making noise on the runway. Conversations centered on global geopolitics, regional regulatory shifts, shifts in supply-demand imbalances, growth, consolidations and continued maturing of the market.
Geopolitics moves from background noise to boardroom variable
A recurring theme throughout the conference was the extent to which geopolitics is no longer strictly contextual to aviation finance as they are actively shaping pricing, credit appetite and fleet strategy. What might previously have been treated as background risk is increasingly being translated into basis points embedded in underwriting assumptions, jurisdictional preferences and covenant structures. Trade tensions, sanctions exposure, enforcement uncertainty or policy unpredictability, and broader political volatility came up repeatedly in discussions as factors that could affect repossession rights or lease cashflows.
Discussions also touched on supply chain fragmentation and the knock-on impact on production stability and delivery timelines, as well as the rapid scale-up of AI and digital infrastructure as both an economic accelerant and a new source of sensitivity. The message here was consistent: geopolitical dynamics are being priced and managed in real time across the aviation ecosystem.
Growth continues with refined discipline
Growth was one of the clearest takeaways from the aviation week with a clear acknowledgment that the recovery phase has transitioned into a period of sustained expansion. Global passenger demand continues to trend upward, with IATA forecasting around 4.9% year-on-year growth in global passenger traffic (measured in revenue passenger kilometres) for 2026, led by continued strength in Asia-Pacific markets, while European flight volumes are expected to reach around 11.4 million, surpassing 2019 levels. This growth trajectory builds on airlines carrying record passenger numbers and elevated load factors, reflecting robust demand even amid capacity constraints.
Against this backdrop, leasing companies remain central to enabling that expansion with more than half of the world’s commercial aircraft are leased, providing airlines with the flexibility to scale without the balance sheet burden of outright ownership. This combination of demand recovery and leasing-enabled capacity growth underpins the sense that growth is real, but it also highlights the emphasis on how that growth is financed, managed and sustained with capital discipline and fleet optimisation central to long-term strategy.
Consolidation as a structural trend: Who Buys Next?
A clear signal from both the Dublin agenda and broader market activity is that consolidation in aviation leasing and finance has moved beyond cyclical repositioning and into structural strategy. Scale is increasingly seen as a competitive advantage. Access to funding, the depth of asset management teams, internal data systems and OEM relationships were all referenced as areas where size matters. The tone felt less focused on who might exit and more on how platforms are positioning themselves for the next cycle.
Recent activity reinforces this direction. The announced take-private of Air Lease Corporation by Sumitomo Corporation, alongside SMBC Aviation Capital and with capital support from Apollo and Brookfield, represents one of the most visible examples of institutional capital backing scale in the sector. Recognition of Dubai Aerospace Enterprise’s (DAE) US$2 billion acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC) as M&A Deal of the Year at the Aviation 100 Global Leaders Awards further highlights how strategic consolidation has been shaping the sector for several years.
Maturing of ABS structures
Aviation ABS moves from a tactical reopening of the market towards a funding channel that has matured. Securitisation is becoming a recurring tool within capital structures rather than a cyclical opportunity. Issuance has strengthened materially, with approximately US$9.9 billion placed across 15 transactions in 2025, reflecting renewed investor appetite and depth.
At the same time, standards have tightened. Market commentary indicates that 2025 portfolios have skewed younger, with early deals averaging around 11.1 years and a combined weighted average closer to 7.8 years according to IBA data as newer transactions entered the market. Rating agencies and investors want better reporting, stronger servicing, better portfolio construction, and they are more sensitive to jurisdictional risk and lessee concentration.
Maria Almerud
Managing DirectorSupply pressure and the evolving lessor model
If there was one headline running through the week, it was the imbalance between demand and supply. Passenger traffic continues to soar, yet aircraft deliveries, engine availability and parts supply remain insufficient, limiting the pace at which additional capacity can enter the market. The consequence has been firm lease rates and airlines keeping aircraft in service longer than originally planned.
For lessors, this has changed the practical scope of asset management. Delivery delays have resulted in bridging strategies, lease extensions and increased technical oversight, particularly around engines. Secondary market portfolio trading has also become a more regular feature, allowing platforms to adjust exposure and manage liquidity without relying solely on new deliveries. Recent activity, including Aviation Capital Group’s acquisition of a 24-aircraft portfolio from Avolon, illustrates how constrained supply is shaping portfolio strategy.
Regional outlook: growth, margins and implementation risk
Regionally, the outlook remains uneven but broadly stable. IATA’s latest report indicates that Europe is expected to generate the highest aggregate net profit, supported in part by strong performance in markets such as Turkey, while the Middle East continues to post the strongest margins. Asia-Pacific remains the fastest-growing region in traffic terms as capacity rebuild continues, whereas North America is facing a more mixed environment, including softer domestic trends and operational constraints. Even so, it remains a major contributor to overall industry profitability.
Latin America was discussed in more measured terms. There are signs of structural improvement in parts of the region, but investors are still cautious and tend to look closely at regulatory durability and policy consistency before committing long-term capital. It is no longer seen purely as a volatility story, but neither is it treated as a uniform growth case.
Argentina aviation reform: steady climb, careful navigation
Argentina was frequently described as moving in a more constructive direction. Recent liberalisation measures, including Decree 599/2024, have been welcomed by IATA as steps towards improving market access and modernising the aviation framework. The tone around the market was noticeably more positive than in prior years, with references to increased competition and a clearer policy direction.
At the same time, investors remain attentive to how reforms translate into day-to-day practice. Recent developments linked to Argentina’s implementation of the OECD Multilateral Instrument (MLI) and treaty updates have also entered structuring discussions, particularly in cross-border aircraft leasing and financing contexts, including aircraft leasing structures involving Swedish SPVs and LILO frameworks. The overall sentiment is improving, but market participants continue to focus on consistency, tax certainty and durability of policy when assessing long-term exposure.
Brazil: tax reform and structuring considerations
Brazil’s indirect tax reform continues to attract attention, particularly among lessors and lenders with exposure to the market. The move towards a new VAT-style framework is intended to simplify the system over time, but the transition phase is where most of the focus sits.
Market participants are looking closely at how the new rules will apply in practice and what they mean for aircraft leasing structures and cross-border financing into Brazil. The direction of travel is clear, yet implementation and timing will ultimately determine how quickly greater certainty returns.
Where the market stands
Overall, the tone from Dublin was measured but constructive. Growth is real, yet supply constraints continue to shape behaviour across airlines and lessors.
Consolidation and ABS feel less like passing phases and more like part of the market’s underlying structure now. At the same time, regional developments are being followed carefully, with most attention on how reforms are implemented in practice.